Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.334802 2.472919 2.623243 2.800678 3.006699 3.241432 3.533837
2025-08-10 2.148014 2.310305 2.493358 2.718675 2.993963 3.327405 3.776110
2025-08-17 2.049627 2.227748 2.433705 2.694999 3.026747 3.448644 4.055152
2025-08-24 1.977395 2.165808 2.387707 2.675785 3.052768 3.551792 4.311809
2025-08-31 1.922013 2.118003 2.352248 2.662132 3.078084 3.648250 4.563941
2025-09-07 1.890424 2.095515 2.344187 2.679382 3.141124 3.797832 4.916818
2025-09-14 1.815729 2.015839 2.259396 2.589346 3.047078 3.704789 4.844778
2025-09-21 1.784596 1.988455 2.238793 2.581967 3.066127 3.779353 5.069437
2025-09-28 1.739769 1.941913 2.191224 2.534986 3.024053 3.753651 5.103087
2025-10-05 1.740459 1.952114 2.216313 2.586593 3.126095 3.961053 5.613625
2025-10-12 1.750532 1.973909 2.256484 2.659878 3.264055 4.241314 6.352694
2025-10-19 1.733180 1.959469 2.247621 2.662787 3.293418 4.337502 6.707351
2025-10-26 1.714407 1.943723 2.237821 2.665846 3.326238 4.448855 7.151551
2025-11-02 1.669065 1.892039 2.177896 2.593708 3.234729 4.322883 6.934166
2025-11-09 1.645451 1.868104 2.154654 2.573762 3.225428 4.348120 7.136407
2025-11-16 1.624700 1.847282 2.134821 2.557649 3.220714 4.380142 7.364296
2025-11-23 1.606931 1.829851 2.118939 2.546411 3.222705 4.423920 7.638455
2025-11-30 1.600298 1.826736 2.122217 2.563092 3.270764 4.561029 8.258841
2025-12-07 1.559521 1.777640 2.061227 2.482112 3.151931 4.354319 7.660800
2025-12-14 1.546559 1.765254 2.050576 2.476170 3.158990 4.402875 7.959481
2025-12-21 1.521335 1.736166 2.016322 2.433943 3.103279 4.320299 7.782420
2025-12-28 1.528471 1.750132 2.041678 2.481745 3.201602 4.561057 8.866177
2026-01-04 1.541849 1.772567 2.079192 2.549196 3.338023 4.903588 10.719949